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Monday 6 August 2012

AGRARIAN CRISIS IN INDIA


             Twenty years of economic liberalization have adversely affected Indian agriculture. This article presents the problems prevalent in Indian agriculture, its consequences and it also attempts to provide effective solutions for the same. One of the major features of the current agrarian crisis is that there has been a decline in trend growth rate of production as well as productivity for almost all crops from the mid-nineties. Further the value of output has been declining from the late nineties.
                  Lack of adequate credit supply, improper irrigation and other infrastructural facilities, excessive dependence of a large proportion of population on agriculture, poor returns on cultivation, failure to mobilize enough capital for investment in productive technology and high level of unemployment in rural sector etc. are some of the major problems which India faces today in agricultural development.  Moreover with greater globalization and liberalization, the farmer is being increasingly exposed to the uncertainties of the product as well as factor markets. Also the farmers are caught up in a “debt-trap” due to greater reliance on informal sources of credit at higher interest burden. The most prominent manifestation of this is the large number of farmer suicides taking place in the countryside in the past decade. The crop insurance brought by the government has also proved to be a failure.
                 The major reasons for the crisis are liberal import of agricultural products, cutback in agricultural subsidies, lack of easy and low-cost loan to agriculture, lack of public sector investment in agriculture, inefficient public distribution system (PDS) and minimum support price (MSP) and the introduction of special economic zones (SEZ).
                   The agricultural crisis is affecting a majority of the people in India. The farmers and others employed in agriculture are in deep distress and are struggling for their livelihood. Therefore the crisis of agriculture is a crisis of the country as a whole and so needs urgent attention. Solutions to the problem may include quantitative restrictions on imports, bold steps to implement land reform measures, subsidies to agriculture which were removed by the 1991 reforms should be restored, public sector investment in agricultural infrastructure should be increased and loans should be made easily available to even the poor farmers. Revival of PDS and revision of the policy on SEZs are other measures which should be implemented. Also care should be taken that no subsidies are inefficient and subsidy on power to agriculture should be combined with encouragement to use fertilizers, better techniques of production and good quality seeds. Education of the farmers about the new technologies and methods of production should also be taken up by the government.
             Thus the policy implication discussion calls for an emphasis on the larger crisis; that of low returns and declining profitability from agriculture and that of poor non-farm opportunities. Risk management in agriculture should address yield, price, credit, income or weather related uncertainties among others. Improving water availability will facilitate diversification of cropping pattern, but this should go hand in hand with policies that increase non-farm employment.
Availability of affordable credit requires revitalization of the rural credit market. It is high time that the government and the people realized that India can become a real “superpower” only when the vast majority of the people, especially the farmers in the rural areas, become prosperous and are really empowered.
                                                                                  

Sunday 5 August 2012

What is a price floor?


 A price floor is a legal minimum on the price at which a good can be sold. `A price floor can be binding or not binding. If the equilibrium price is above the price floor, the price floor is not binding.  Market forces naturally move the economy to the equilibrium, and the price floor has no effect. In case the price floor is set above the equilibrium price, it is a binding constraint on the market. The forces of supply and demand tend to move the price towards the equilibrium price, but when the market price hits the floor, it can fall no further. The market price equals the price floor. At this floor, the quantity supplied exceeds the quantity demanded. Some people who want to sell the good at the going price are unable to. Thus, a binding price floor causes a surplus. The figure below shows a binding price floor.


A bit on probability


The addition rule of probability says that the probability of occurrence of atleast one of the two events A and B is given by:
P(AÈB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AÇB)

The multiplication rule of probability says that the probability of simultaneous happening of two events A and B is given by:
P(AÇB) = P(A). P(A|B) ; P(A) ¹ 0    or,
P(BÇA) = P(B). P(B|A)  ; P(B) ¹ 0
where P(B|A) is the conditional probability of happening of B under the condition that A has happened and P(A|B) is the conditional probability of happening of A under the condition that B has happened.

Thus, the addition rule gives the probability of happening of at least one event out of all the possible events while the multiplication rule gives the probability of happening of all the events simultaneously.

Independence: Events are said to be independent of each other if happening of any one of them is not affected by and does not affect the happening of any one of the others.
If A and B are independent events, then:
P(A|B) = P(A)   and P(B|A) = P(B)
Two events are dependent if the above does not hold.
Multiplication rule for independent events thus becomes:
P(AÇB) = P(A).P(B)

International relations in deterrence theory and game theory


Discuss the insights we gain from the analysis of international relations in deterrence theory and game theory, underscoring how the rational and unitary state assumptions relate to such theories or approaches.

International relations can be understood by applying game theory. The way states behave in the international system, can be explained by using game theory. One basic assumption that game theory makes is that all actors in the system (game) are rational. Rationality means that each individual does what he thinks is best for him irrespective of the behavior of other individuals. If we assume this, game theory can be used to model a certain international scenario and be used to determine the most probable outcome. For example, the prisoner’s dilemma problem can be used to model the behavior of two states who act in their own self interests. Game theory models can be used to explain why states do or do not cooperate and how profitable outcomes can be reached. Game theory also finds its application in the models of deterrence. Deterrence is a strategy to prevent an attack, by which governments threaten an immense retaliation if attacked, such that aggressors are deterred because the damage would outweigh any likely benefit. Such a threat should be credible. It is assumed that States are unitary actors each moving towards their own national interest. This is similar to the assumption of rationality in game theory.  There is a general distrust of long-term cooperation or alliance among states. Deterrence also assumes that a nation adequately understands the calculations of an opponent. For example, during the Cold War, it was assumed that nuclear weapons were the most effective deterrent to war between the States of the East and the West.

Hedging


Foreign currency transactions are those transactions whose terms are denominated in a currency other than the entity’s functional currency. Foreign currency or transactions risk is a risk that arises due to fluctuations of exchange rates. Hedging means controlling or reducing risk. Foreign exchange risk can be neutralized or hedged by a change in the asset and liability position in the foreign currency. Foreign currency hedging aims to reduce currency risk.
The following are the possible ways to control risk:

1.  Risk can be reduced by entering a money-market hedge. This means that borrowing or lending in the money market can offset the losses in a foreign currency.
2. Hedging can also be done by purchasing forward (or futures) exchange Contracts. The forward exchange contract is a commitment to buy or sell, at a specified future date, one currency for a specified amount of another currency (at a specified exchange rate). Forward contracts lock in a fixed exchange rate, for the receipts and payments. This rate is usually the market determined forward exchange rate. Such forward rates are equal to the expected spot rate on the future date. Forward contracts offer stability to the receipts and payments. Both parties (the receiver and the payer) know exactly how much needs to be payed or received. This limits the losses but also limits the extra profits that could have been made, in case the rate on the date of the transaction had been more favorable than the predetermined forward rate. Similarly, hedging can be done in commodity markets through futures trading.
3. Another hedging strategy is to invest in foreign currency options. A foreign currency option is a contract that grants the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell currency at a specified exchange rate during a specified period of time. The advantage here is that in case the spot rate is more favorable than the rate specified in the contract, the company can abandon the option since it is not an obligation.
4.  Leading and lagging incomes and expenditures are an internal way of reducing risk and can be used when money market and forward-market hedges are not available. Under such circumstances, leading (accelerating) and lagging (decelerating) can be used to reduce risk. A trader can lead (pay in advance) or lag (pay late) his foreign currency payments, depending on whether he expects the foreign currency to appreciate or depreciate, in the near future. The idea is that foreign currency depreciation (home currency appreciation) translates into lower receipts and higher payments, respectively.
5. Another internal way to reduce currency risk is netting receipts and payments. Netting involves matching (or clubbing) the receipts and payments in a currency, so that any losses in receipts are compensated by the gains in payments and vice versa. The major advantage of netting is that the costs associated with a large number of separate foreign exchange transactions are reduced.
           The best way of eliminating foreign currency risk is to not take it in the first place. Spot contracts are a way of hedging which can protect one from adverse exchange rate changes. In spot contracts, contract payments and receipts are settled on the same day. Massive exchange rate movements usually do not occur in such a small duration and thus the person is protected from foreign currency risks. This is an almost costless foreign currency hedging strategy.

Economic and Business Environment in Saudi Arabia


Economic and Business Environment in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Over  the  past  few  years,  Saudi  Arabia  has  witnessed  rapid  economic  growth.  Saudi  Arabia  is  a  major  exporter  of  oil.  However,  the  increase  in  economic  growth  cannot  be  attributed  to  exports  alone.  There  have  been  many  factors  which  have  brought  about  this  fast  paced  economic  growth.  This  paper  discusses  the  economic  structure,  the  trade  and  business  environment  and  investment  policies  in  Saudi  Arabia.  The  report  makes  an  initial  effort  to  show  how  the  economic  environment  and   business  environment  are  linked  to  each  other  and  also  what  are  the  major  benefits  and  challenges  of  investing  in  Saudi  Arabia.
The  structure  of  the  paper  is  as  follows:
1.     Firstly,  we  briefly  discuss  the  geography,  politics  and  economy  of  the  country.

2.     Secondly,  we  show  how  oil  resources  have  played  a  role  in  transforming  the  economy.

3.     The  next  issue  we  take  up  is  how  entrepreneurship  and  economic  development  are  linked,  which  gives  the  scope  of  economic  growth  beyond  crude  oil  as  a  natural  resource.

4.     Having  defined  the  structure  of  the  economy  and  its  key  features,  we  turn  to  take  a  look  at  the  key  benefits  of  investment  in  Saudi  Arabia.

5.     Then,  we  go  on  to  discuss  some  challenges  which  a  potential  foreign  investor  must  keep  in  mind  before  deciding  to  invest  in  the  country.

6.     We  conclude  with  a  note  on  future  prospects  for  investment.








Introduction


The  kingdom  of  Saudi  Arabia  has  a  geographical  area  of  1,960,582 million sq. km.,  with  Riyadh  as  the  capital  city. The  majority  of  the  country  is  a  desert. The  government  type  is  a  Monarchy  with  Council  of  Ministers  and  Consultative  Council.  There  are  no  political  parties  as  formal  parties  are  not  legalized.  As  per  the  2010  data, some  of  the  economic  and  development  indicators  are  summarized  below.




Indicator
 Male
 Female
 Total




Annual growth rate
-
-
3.8%
GDP
-
-
$ 623 billion
Per capita GDP
-
-
$24,200
Literacy
84.7%
70.8%
78.8%
Infant mortality rate
-
-
11.57
Life expectancy
74 years
78 years
-
Workforce


                        -Industry
                       - Services
                       -Agriculture
-
-
6.49 million ( 35% foreign workers)

25%
63%
12%
Arable land
-
-
1.76%
Exports
-
-
$253 billion
Imports
-
-
$99 billion




 
The  country  is  endowed  with  a  number  of  resources,  primarily  crude  oil.  The  essential  natural  resources  are  hydrocarbons,   gold,  uranium,  bauxite,   coal,  iron,  phosphate,  tungsten,  zinc,  silver,  and  copper.  The  exports  mainly  consist  of  petroleum  and  petroleum  products  while  imports  mainly  include  manufactured  goods.  The  major  trading  partners  are  China,  U.K,  U.S,  India,  Singapore,  France,  Japan,  Taiwan,  South  Korea  and  Japan.


Role  of  Crude  Oil  and  Other  Natural  Resources

The  Saudi  Arabian  economy  is  an  oil-based  economy  and  has  strong  government  controls  over all  major economic activities. It  is  a  well-to-do  economy  and  has  the  largest  petroleum  reserves  in  the  world  (26% of  the  total  world  reserves).  It  is  the  largest  exporter  of  petroleum, and plays a leading  role in Organization  of  the  Petroleum  Exporting  Countries   (OPEC). The  petroleum  sector  accounts  for  roughly  75%  of  budget  revenues,  40%  of  GDP,  and  90%  of  export  earnings.  Almost,  35%  of  GDP  comes  from  the  private  sector. Around  four  million  foreign workers  play  an  important  role  in  the  country’s  economy,  mainly,  in  the  oil  and  service  sectors.  Saudi  Arabia  is  not  only  rich  in  oil  reserves,  but  it  also  enjoys  the  privilege  of  low  extraction  cost.
From   the  1970s  onwards,  oil  wealth  has  played  an  important  role  in   transforming   the   country's   economy   into  a  modern  state.  It  has  helped  the  country  to  have  an  impressive  physical  and  social  infrastructure. During   the  past  three  decades,  Saudi  Arabia  has  spent  $900 billion on  the  construction  of  ultra modern  roads,  ports,  air  network,  educational  and  health  facilities.
Other  raw  materials  have  also  contributed  to  the  development  projects  in  the  country.  The  Ministry  of  Petroleum  and  Mineral  Resources  has  identified  more  than  2000  sites  that  contain  raw  material  necessary  for  the  following  industries:  Cement,  gypsum,  glass,  Chinese  ceramics,  red  brick,  limestone,  and  rock  wool. These  raw  materials  have  assisted  greatly  in  the  establishment  of  factories,  quarries  and  other  infrastructure  which  have  boosted  the  national  economy.  
The  availability  of  these  natural  resources  has  enormously  helped  the  country  in  foreign  trade  and  has  given  it  a  respectable  position  in  the  world,  today. Saudi  Arabia's  trade  balance has  been  favorable  in  the  past.  Due  to  a  widening  surplus  between  imports  and  exports,  this  trend  is  expected  to  continue  in  the  future.  Non-oil  exports  are also  expected  to  play  an  increasingly  important  role  in  the  Kingdom's  international  trade  as  the  focus  is  now  shifting  towards  investment  in  export-oriented  goods. 





Business  and  Economic  Growth

More  business  means  more  income  which  means  more  economic  growth. In  general,  entrepreneurship  and  economic  growth  are  very  closely  and  positively  linked.  An  increase  in  the  number  of  entrepreneurs  means  that  doing  business  in  the  economy  is  profitable  and  this  in  turn   leads  to  an  increase  in  economic  growth.  The  major  force  driving  this,  is  the  propensity  to  innovate.  As  businesses  expand  and  more  firms  enter  the  market,  knowledge  and  skill  undergoes  the  process  of  commercialization  and  knowledge  has  a  “spill  over”  effect,  which  creates  new  and  exciting  business  and  economic  opportunities.
 The  Saudi  Arab  government  has  come  up  with  a  Saudi  Fast  Growth  (SFG)  list.  It  is an   annual  ranking  of  the  fastest-growing  companies  in  the  Kingdom  of  Saudi  Arabia. As  economic  growth  is  a  focus  for  the  Saudi  Arabian  Government,  the  SFG  focuses  on  those  type  of  companies  which  are  stimulating  growth  and  will  also  stimulate  growth  in  the  future. By  analyzing  the  conditions  that  help  entrepreneurs  prosper  and  the  practices  that  have  made  companies  on  the  list  succeed,  Saudi  Arabian  Government  can  develop  policies  that  encourage  new  businesses  to  start-up  and  thrive. This knowledge  will be vital  in  stimulating  the  Saudi  economy  in  the  desired  direction  as  they  are  the  economy’s  largest  employers  and  measuring  them  gives  an  opportunity  to  see  how   the  economy  is  growing  and  how  much  it  has  diversified.



 FOREIGN INVESTMENT POLICY

Owing  to  its  ambitious  economic  goals,  the  Kingdom  of  Saudi  Arab  realizes  that  achieving  rapid  economic  growth   requires  not  just  a  fine  trade  balance,  but  also  a  steady  flow  of  technology,  innovation  and  expertise  into the  country.  Therefore,  it  follows  a  liberal  foreign  investment  policy.  It  welcomes  foreign  capital  and  invites  it  to  participate  in  economic  development  projects.  The  government's  policy  is  to  allow  free  movement  of  capital  without  any  restrictions  on  capital  mobility.  Also,  the  State respects  private  ownership  and  has  formulated  policies  to  promote  it.
Moreover,  any  foreign  investment  that  fulfills  the  requirements  of  the  Foreign  Capital  Investment  Code  is  entitled  to  enjoy  all  privileges  of  national  capital  and  is  entitled  to  the  same  treatment,  protection ,  and  incentives  accorded   to  the  national  capital.  The  requirement  of  the  code  is  that  foreign  capital  should  be  invested  in  economic  development  projects  (which,  under  the  Code,  do  not  include  petroleum  and  mineral  projects)   and  also  it  must  be accompanied  by  technical knowledge.  Development projects are defined by the Ministry of Industry and Electricity.
Provided that the share of national capital is at least 25 percent, industrial or agricultural projects that fulfill the above requirements enjoy the following benefits:
·         An income tax holiday of up to 10 years from the commencement of commercial production.

·         Ownership of land according to the regulations governing land ownership by non-Saudis.

·         For industrial projects, the same privileges as those enjoyed by Saudi capital under the National Industries Protection and Encouragement Regulations. These include:
a.     Exemption  from  customs  duties  on  machinery,  equipment,  tools and spare  parts  imported for industrial products.
b.     Exemption  from  customs  duties  on  primary  raw  materials,  semi-finished  goods,  containers,  etc.,  necessary  for  industrial  projects (provided  that  similar  items  are  not  sufficiently  available  locally).
c.      Provision  by  the  government  of  plots  of  land  at  a  nominal  rate  for factories  and  residential  quarters  for  workers.
d.     Low  electricity  and  water  rates.
e.     No  restriction  on  repatriation  of  profits.
f.       Preferential  treatment  for  local  products  in  government  procurement  in  addition  to  preferential  treatment  accorded  to  national  products  by  Arab  League  and  Saudi  Arabian  bilateral  trade  agreements.

Thus,   the  country  focuses  on  innovation  and  knowledge.  Quoting,  Prince  Naif,  The Saudi leadership, he said, is aware of the importance of innovation. “This is the reason why we have focused on turning our economy into one that is based on knowledge.”

 Benefits  of  Investing  In  Saudi  Arabia

Saudi  Arabian  economy  is  one  of  the  fastest  growing  and  also  one  of  the  fastest  reforming  economies  of  the  world.  Today,  it  is  recognized  as  one  of  the  finest  places  to  do  business.  The  fact  that  its  ranking  has  improved   from  67th  to  13th  position  in  a  short  period  of  time,  makes  it  a  favorite  spot  for  investors  all  across  the  world.  In just three years, Saudi Arabia has risen from 67th to 23rd position in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index and is currently number one in the Middle East.  The  country  not  only  provides  excellent  investment  opportunities  in  the  energy  sector,  but  also  offers  an  international  standard  business  environment  to  help  new  businesses  explore  the  opportunities  and  advantages  in  this  country.

Saudi  Arabia  offers  a  variety  of  benefits  for  businesses  to  thrive  in  the  region.  Following  are  the  main  advantages  that  a  potential  foreign  investor  can  enjoy  by  investing  in  the  country.

1.      A  dynamic  business  environment  and  high  growth  rate

The  country  has  grown  at  a  stupendous  rate  in  the  past  few  years,  which  has  left  many  surprised.  The  growth  rate  in  the  Kingdom   of  Saudi  Arab  has  exceeded  even  the  world  growth  rate  and  is  continuously  accelerating.  Even  though  the  growth  is  mainly  oil-based,  non-oil  industries  have  also  played  an  important  role  in  increasing  the  economic  performance  of  the  country.  By  investing  in  infrastructure  on  a  large  scale,  the  government  has  made  sure  that  the growth  that  the  country  is  experiencing  is  sustainable  in  the  long-run.  These  conditions,  along  with  a  good  domestic  demand  can  substantially  benefit  a  foreign  investor.

2.     Investment  opportunities

Due  to  rapid  economic  progress  and  a  liberal  foreign  investment  policy,  there  are  ample  investment  opportunities  in  the  country.  Of course, it is no surprise that Saudi Arabia offers the world's most competitive energy prices to investment projects. As such, Saudi Arabia continues to be a natural choice for investors in all energy-intensive industries.

But competitive advantage in today's Saudi Arabia run much deeper than just energy. It's about creating a world-class business environment that combines an ease of conducting business with low costs. 

The  country  also  presents  several  export-oriented  investment  opportunities  that  can  result  in  strong  and  sustained  growth  for  a  business.

 

3.      Macroeconomic  conditions

The  economy  is  characterized  by  sound  and  stable  macroeconomic  conditions.  It  provides  stability  and   a  risk-free  environment  for  the  foreign  investors.  Also,  interest  rates  are  considerably  lower  in  the  region. 

 

4.     Market  size

The  country  provides  a  huge  market  for  businesses  to  thrive.  Also,  there  is  the  aspect  of  ease  of  access  as  the  country  has  well  linked  cities  and  also  other  countries.  The  economy  provides  a  competitive  edge  as  it  allows  businesses

 

 

 

 

Economic Challenges Facing Saudi Arabia

 

Even  though  investing  in  the  country  has  many  advantages,  it  is  not  challenge  free.  An  investor  must  keep  in  mind  these  hurdles  before  deciding  to  invest  in  Saudi  Arab. 

Some  of  the  key  challenges  that  the  economy  of  Saudi  Arab  faces are:

1.      Diversification

The  Saudi  Arabian  economy  is  an  energy-based  economy.  In  the  past  few  years,  many  attempts  have  been  made  to  diversify  and  decentralize  the  economy.  However,  majority  of  the  attempts  to  diversify  have  been  unsuccessful. 

2.     Land  shortage

This  is  one  of  the  greatest  challenges  as  the  government  is  finding  it  increasingly  difficult  to  provide  land  and  proper  housing  facilities  for  the  rising  population. 

3.     Education  problem

Educational  reforms  are  few  and  even  the  ones  that  do  exist  are  incomplete  and  insufficient. In  this  respect  religion  comes  as  a  hurdle  and  thus,  modernization  becomes  difficult.

4.     Judicial  issues

The  judicial  system  of  the  State  remains  backward  and  lacks  modernization.  Even  though  efforts  are  being  made  to  improve  the  situation,  the  judicial  system  still  has  a  long  way  to  go.  Also,  the  system  lacks  transparency  and   therefore  creates  further  troubles.

 

5.     Credit  crisis

The  recent  crisis  has  stalled  investment  in  the  region  and  it  may  take  time  for  the  economy  to  completely  overcome  the  crisis.


 

 

 

Conclusion


Saudi Arabia’s fast-growing economy is creating opportunities for both exporters and investors. These are further boosted by moves to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and gas, economic reform, market liberalisation and a growing private sector. “Saudi Arabia has become key to the stability of the world economy and this is reflected in the number of investors who are lining up to invest in the Kingdom,” said Prince Naif. “Thanks to the economic reforms, our rankings on various crucial indices have gone up phenomenally in the last few years,” he said.  Thus,  Saudi  Arabia  is  a  good  place  to  invest,  especially  if  it  is  an  energy  oriented  business.  However,  one  must  consider  the  disadvantages  also  before  investing  in  the  country.  Even  though  the  benefits  outweigh  the  challenges,  a  particular  business  may  be  considerably  hampered  by  the  challenges.  So,  other  than  a  few  challenges,  the  Saudi  Arabian  economy  is  expected  to  grow  and  prosper  in  the  future.






References
Saudi Arabia best place for investment - By SIRAJ WAHAB